Jun 11

HURRICANE BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO

Hurricane Bud has continued to strengthen this morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts -a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday.

Bud is centered as of 9 a.m. MDT about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and about 475 miles (760 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch continues along the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning this afternoon. Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, across much of southwestern Mexico into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Jun 08

Infrared NASA Imagery Shows Hurricane Aletta Strengthening

NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Hurricane Aletta on June 7 at 4:41 p.m. EDT (2041 UTC) and saw coldest cloud top temperatures (purple) around the center of circulation and in thick feeder bands from the south and east of the storm’s center. Credits: NASA JPL/Ed Olsen

When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Aletta in the Eastern Pacific Ocean it had just become the first hurricane of the season. Infrared imagery showed that Aletta appeared more organized. The National Hurricane Center noted that Aletta could become a Category 4 hurricane later on June 8.

NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Hurricane Aletta on June 7 at 4:41 p.m. EDT (2041 UTC). The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument analyzed the storm in infrared light which provides temperature information. Temperature is important when trying to understand how strong storms can be. The higher the cloud tops, the colder and the stronger they are.

AIRS saw coldest cloud top temperatures around the center of circulation and in thick feeder bands from the south and east of the storm’s center. Those cloud top temperatures were as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius). Storms with cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability to produce heavy rainfall.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that Aletta became the first hurricane of the east pacific season on June 7 at 5 p.m. EDT.

NHC posted at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) on June 8, “the eye of Hurricane Aletta was located near latitude 15.8 north and longitude 110.7 west. That’s about 475 miles (765 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Aletta is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 kph) and a slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts.  Aletta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  The hurricane could intensify to category 4 status later today before significant weakening begins this weekend.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 millibars.”

Although Aletta is several hundred miles off-shore from southwestern Mexico, it’s a powerful storm and is creating dangerous coastal ocean swells. The National Hurricane Center said on June 8, “Swells generated by Aletta will begin to affect portions of the coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur later today and will continue through the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

May 25

.PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…WESTERN CUBA…FLORIDA…AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND

NHC has begun advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Alberto. It’s centered about 195 miles (315 km) southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

On the forecast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. EDT. –

Apr 09

MetService issues Warnings, Watches and Outlooks for severe weather over New Zealand

A complex low about to cross central New Zealand will spare no one from the cold air it will drag up from the Southern Ocean.

“On the back of a warmer than average summer this low will guarantee a noticeable decrease in temperature for all New Zealand, if not an unusually early dump of snow,” said April Clark MetService Meteorologist.

Severe Weather Watches and Warnings associated with this front have now been issued. Wind gusts of up to 140km/h and significant snow down to 400 metres is forecast over parts of the country from late this evening. The wind and snow are likely to cause disruption on roads and damage to power lines and unsecured structures. People are encouraged to check the latest watches and warnings to see whether they are likely to be affected when making plans into tomorrow. You can find all this information here http://info.metraweather.com/e/60812/AllWarnings/fsfx49/687902982.

“Southerlies strengthen over the South Island late today signalling the quick descent into the sub-Antarctic air mass,” Clark said. “This cold air paired with persistent rain developing over the mid to upper South Island tonight means snow levels are expected lower to 400 metres for inland areas of the South Island by early Tuesday morning,” she continued.

The largest snow accumulations are expected over east of the South Island (away from the coast) on Wednesday, though snow showers could penetrate as low as 300 metres south of Otago. Further north, the central North Island is forecast see snow down to 700 metres by Wednesday as the cold air forces north with the southerly change.

Thunderstorms with damaging gusts of up to 110km/h are forecast ahead of the low for many regions north of Buller from late tonight and into Tuesday. Areas under a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms are highlighted here http://info.metraweather.com/e/60812/STSWatch/fsfx4c/687902982.

Behind the low, strong southerly winds will also affect several regions including Auckland which will see the strong, cold turn during Tuesday evening. “Aucklanders see a windy Tuesday, with the worst of the wind expected after dark” Clark commented.

“As the low moves away to the east on Wednesday conditions are expected to ease and skies clear in the south. This means perfect condition for sub-zero temperatures for inland areas, this could be the hardest frost for inland South Island so far this year” warned Clark.

Once this system exits to the east of the country, another weather system is signalled for the latter part of the working week, bringing further unsettled weather.

Warnings are about taking action when severe weather is imminent or is occurring. They are issued only when required.
Recommendation: ACT 

Watches are about being alert when severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a Warning to be issued. They are issued only when required.
Recommendation: BE READY 

Outlooks are about looking ahead, providing advance information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings. They are issued routinely once or twice a day.
Recommendation: PLAN 

Mar 03

Killer storm clears northeast U.S., leaving floods and outages

Heavy Snow and Strong Winds in the Rockies, Great Basin; Critical to Extreme Fire Danger in High Plains.

…Conditions will continue to improve across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic states as a powerful storm system pulls away from the New England coast… …

Heavy snow will continue across the mountains of California and should spread across the Central Great Basin and northern Rockies this weekend… …

Weather will become increasingly active across the Great Plains while a large scale upper trough edges out into the central U.S. late this weekend…

Much of the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic was slammed with heavy snow, heavy rain, and high winds from a powerful storm system as it tracked offshore the New England coast. As the system continues to pull away from the coast conditions will improve, although light snow showers will linger over the Great Lakes and interior New England.

Drier air will enter the region as high pressure builds in wake of the front. Much of the West will remain in an unsettled pattern through the weekend; which, will be conducive for accumulating mountain snow for portions of California, the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. Numerous Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storms Warnings and High Wind Warning are in effect.

The upper-level trough will migrate east and exit into the Plains.

Moisture returning from the Western Gulf should help fuel precipitation developing across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, while strong winds and a swath of heavy snow are expected across the northern Plains as a surface low rapidly deepens in the lee of the Colorado Rockies and moves northeast into the eastern Dakotas.

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 334 AM EST Sat Mar 03 2018 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 03 2018 – 12Z Mon Mar 05 2018

Jan 02

Storm Eleanor heads for the UK

MET Office

The start of 2018 will be unsettled with low-pressure systems continuing to move across the UK from the Atlantic, bringing frequently wet and windy weather to the UK.

The fifth named storm of the season has been named as a developing low pressure system, Storm Eleanor, is forecast to bring gusts of up to 80 mph to parts of the UK on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Paul Gundersen, Met Office Chief Forecaster, said: “The unsettled theme continues throughout this week, with further spells of rain moving across the UK from the west as many return to work on Tuesday, and there will again be some snow over the high ground in Scotland.

“The wind will pick up again later on Tuesday and Wednesday as developing Storm Eleanor heads towards the UK and Ireland. Storm Eleanor will bring a very windy spell to the UK on Tuesday night and Wednesday with gales or severe gales in places and National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued as there is the potential for some travel disruption, and high waves throwing beach material on to sea fronts, roads and coastal properties, along western and southern coasts.”

Storm Eleanor is heading across the Atlantic (Image: www.magicseaweed.com)

Carol Holt, flood duty manager for the Environment Agency, said: “Unsettled weather with strong winds and at times large waves, combined with high tides, could lead to some coastal flooding from Tuesday until Thursday.

“Our frontline teams are on the ground checking defences and may close coastal flood gates this week. We urge people to stay safe on the coast – take extreme care on coastal paths and promenades, and don’t put yourself in unnecessary danger trying to take ‘storm selfies’.  If you’re travelling, please check your route before setting off and don’t drive through flood water.

“We will issue flood alerts and warnings as necessary, so please check www.gov.uk/flood for the latest advice or call Floodline on 0345 988 1188.”

Unsettled weather will continue through the rest of the week with further bouts of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter, showery periods. There may be snow at times across northern areas, especially Scotland, as well as ice at night between the wet spells.

Looking ahead to the weekend Deputy Chief Forecaster Dan Harris added: “Later in the week and over the weekend there are signs of a trend to colder conditions, especially in the north, with clearer skies for many and a return of the risk of frost, ice and wintry showers. It could remain more unsettled in the south. The details of the forecast later this week and into the weekend are extremely uncertain at this stage, so my advice is to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as confidence will increase later in the week.”

Whatever weather we experience over the next few days you can make sure that you and those around you are prepared for winter weather and can cope with its impacts. You’ll always find the most up to date information on our forecast pages, Twitter and Facebook, as well as our mobile app.

Dec 27

Cold weather prompts further health warnings from Public Health England

Public Health England (PHE) issues cold weather alerts and health warnings following the arrival of colder weather in some parts of England.

Arrival of cold weather across Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and North West of England that is due to spread across the rest of the country has prompted further warnings from Public Health England to look out for others and to take extra care during the cold, snowy conditions.

A band of rain, sleet and snow followed by a very cold and frosty period is forecast to spread southeast across the country from today until Saturday. Because every winter cold triggers thousands of illnesses and deaths across the UK, PHE is urging people to wrap up warm and take extra care when out and about.

Dr Thomas Waite of the Extreme Events team at PHE said:

Cold weather like this is part of winter – but just because we’re used to it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take steps to protect ourselves from falling ill. Every winter thousands of people die from illnesses linked to exposure to the cold when indoors and outside – that’s why it’s so important we all look out for each other.

During this Christmas period many people will be out and about more, so it’s important to make sure you’re prepared when leaving the home. Also, there will be a number of people who will have been on their own all this time. If you can, check on family, friends and neighbours who are older, have young children or who have heart and lung conditions. All these groups are particularly vulnerable to cold.

Keep a close eye on weather forecasts so you’re up-to-date with what’s happening in your area, keep homes heated to at least 18°C and remember wearing several thin layers can be more effective than fewer thicker ones.

Steve Willington, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office said:

A band of rain, sleet and snow will slowly clear east during Wednesday, with sunny but cold weather following. However some wintry showers could also move into North Sea coasts. A cold, breezy night follows with widespread frost, and a risk of ice. Thursday will then be cold and sunny, although wintry showers are likely to spread southeast from Northwest England into the Midlands. This will be followed by winds easing, and a very cold, and frosty overnight period. Milder conditions are expected to move across all parts by Saturday morning.

Nov 03

NASA Sees Damrey Strengthen into a Typhoon

Image: The AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured temperature data of Typhoon Damrey’s clouds on Nov. 2 at 1811 UTC (2:11 p.m. EDT). Coldest cloud tops (purple) were as cold as or colder than -63F (-53C). (Credits: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA’s Aqua satellite and the NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP satellite provided imagery of Damrey as it strengthened into a typhoon in the South China Sea.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured temperature data of Typhoon Damrey’s clouds on Nov. 2 at 1811 UTC (2:11 p.m. EDT). AIRS found that coldest cloud tops were as cold as or colder than minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit or minus 53 degrees Celsius which are indicative of strong storms. NASA research has shown that storms with cloud tops that cold have the capability to generate heavy rainfall.

On Nov 3, 2017 at 1:06 a.m. EDT (0506 UTC) the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of Typhoon Damrey approaching Vietnam. The image revealed spiral bands of thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center and the hint of an eye.

Damrey is in a favorable area for strengthening with low vertical wind shear and is tracking through and area of warm sea surface temperatures.

Oct 29

Seasonal Outlook: The Weather Company Says Europe is in for Another Mild Month in November, Before Colder Emerges

December Expected to be Coldest Month of Winter, Relative to Normal

Andover, MA, 23 October 2017 — For the aggregate November-January period, The Weather Company is forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across most of the eastern half of Europe, with slightly below-normal temperatures and wetter conditions confined to parts of western Europe.

“As we head into late October and early November, there is significant uncertainty with regards to the degree of North Atlantic blocking,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “For now, we are playing it fairly conservative and are forecasting a relatively mild November with generally warm and wet conditions across northern/western Europe. Looking further ahead, many of the climate models are depicting a very mild start to winter, but we are seeing enough evidence so that we do expect December to be colder-than-normal across NW Europe. As we head deeper into the winter, we expect the early colder weather to fade a bit.”

For the November-January 2017 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

November

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, colder east

December

  • Nordic region – Colder than normal
  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

January

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder west
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder west

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site

Oct 28

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

NHC has begun issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. It’s located over the Northwest Caribbean Sea about 305 miles (490 km) south-southwest of the Isle of Youth and about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara, and the Northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.

On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through then northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. However, the system does not yet have a well-defined center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. When that occurs, it will be given the name “Philippe”.

The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals:
– Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches tonight.
– Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and the Northwest
Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.
– South Florida, including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.