Apr 09

MetService issues Warnings, Watches and Outlooks for severe weather over New Zealand

A complex low about to cross central New Zealand will spare no one from the cold air it will drag up from the Southern Ocean.

“On the back of a warmer than average summer this low will guarantee a noticeable decrease in temperature for all New Zealand, if not an unusually early dump of snow,” said April Clark MetService Meteorologist.

Severe Weather Watches and Warnings associated with this front have now been issued. Wind gusts of up to 140km/h and significant snow down to 400 metres is forecast over parts of the country from late this evening. The wind and snow are likely to cause disruption on roads and damage to power lines and unsecured structures. People are encouraged to check the latest watches and warnings to see whether they are likely to be affected when making plans into tomorrow. You can find all this information here http://info.metraweather.com/e/60812/AllWarnings/fsfx49/687902982.

“Southerlies strengthen over the South Island late today signalling the quick descent into the sub-Antarctic air mass,” Clark said. “This cold air paired with persistent rain developing over the mid to upper South Island tonight means snow levels are expected lower to 400 metres for inland areas of the South Island by early Tuesday morning,” she continued.

The largest snow accumulations are expected over east of the South Island (away from the coast) on Wednesday, though snow showers could penetrate as low as 300 metres south of Otago. Further north, the central North Island is forecast see snow down to 700 metres by Wednesday as the cold air forces north with the southerly change.

Thunderstorms with damaging gusts of up to 110km/h are forecast ahead of the low for many regions north of Buller from late tonight and into Tuesday. Areas under a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms are highlighted here http://info.metraweather.com/e/60812/STSWatch/fsfx4c/687902982.

Behind the low, strong southerly winds will also affect several regions including Auckland which will see the strong, cold turn during Tuesday evening. “Aucklanders see a windy Tuesday, with the worst of the wind expected after dark” Clark commented.

“As the low moves away to the east on Wednesday conditions are expected to ease and skies clear in the south. This means perfect condition for sub-zero temperatures for inland areas, this could be the hardest frost for inland South Island so far this year” warned Clark.

Once this system exits to the east of the country, another weather system is signalled for the latter part of the working week, bringing further unsettled weather.

Warnings are about taking action when severe weather is imminent or is occurring. They are issued only when required.
Recommendation: ACT 

Watches are about being alert when severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a Warning to be issued. They are issued only when required.
Recommendation: BE READY 

Outlooks are about looking ahead, providing advance information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings. They are issued routinely once or twice a day.
Recommendation: PLAN 

Mar 03

Killer storm clears northeast U.S., leaving floods and outages

Heavy Snow and Strong Winds in the Rockies, Great Basin; Critical to Extreme Fire Danger in High Plains.

…Conditions will continue to improve across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic states as a powerful storm system pulls away from the New England coast… …

Heavy snow will continue across the mountains of California and should spread across the Central Great Basin and northern Rockies this weekend… …

Weather will become increasingly active across the Great Plains while a large scale upper trough edges out into the central U.S. late this weekend…

Much of the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic was slammed with heavy snow, heavy rain, and high winds from a powerful storm system as it tracked offshore the New England coast. As the system continues to pull away from the coast conditions will improve, although light snow showers will linger over the Great Lakes and interior New England.

Drier air will enter the region as high pressure builds in wake of the front. Much of the West will remain in an unsettled pattern through the weekend; which, will be conducive for accumulating mountain snow for portions of California, the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. Numerous Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storms Warnings and High Wind Warning are in effect.

The upper-level trough will migrate east and exit into the Plains.

Moisture returning from the Western Gulf should help fuel precipitation developing across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, while strong winds and a swath of heavy snow are expected across the northern Plains as a surface low rapidly deepens in the lee of the Colorado Rockies and moves northeast into the eastern Dakotas.

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 334 AM EST Sat Mar 03 2018 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 03 2018 – 12Z Mon Mar 05 2018

Jan 02

Storm Eleanor heads for the UK

MET Office

The start of 2018 will be unsettled with low-pressure systems continuing to move across the UK from the Atlantic, bringing frequently wet and windy weather to the UK.

The fifth named storm of the season has been named as a developing low pressure system, Storm Eleanor, is forecast to bring gusts of up to 80 mph to parts of the UK on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Paul Gundersen, Met Office Chief Forecaster, said: “The unsettled theme continues throughout this week, with further spells of rain moving across the UK from the west as many return to work on Tuesday, and there will again be some snow over the high ground in Scotland.

“The wind will pick up again later on Tuesday and Wednesday as developing Storm Eleanor heads towards the UK and Ireland. Storm Eleanor will bring a very windy spell to the UK on Tuesday night and Wednesday with gales or severe gales in places and National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued as there is the potential for some travel disruption, and high waves throwing beach material on to sea fronts, roads and coastal properties, along western and southern coasts.”

Storm Eleanor is heading across the Atlantic (Image: www.magicseaweed.com)

Carol Holt, flood duty manager for the Environment Agency, said: “Unsettled weather with strong winds and at times large waves, combined with high tides, could lead to some coastal flooding from Tuesday until Thursday.

“Our frontline teams are on the ground checking defences and may close coastal flood gates this week. We urge people to stay safe on the coast – take extreme care on coastal paths and promenades, and don’t put yourself in unnecessary danger trying to take ‘storm selfies’.  If you’re travelling, please check your route before setting off and don’t drive through flood water.

“We will issue flood alerts and warnings as necessary, so please check www.gov.uk/flood for the latest advice or call Floodline on 0345 988 1188.”

Unsettled weather will continue through the rest of the week with further bouts of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter, showery periods. There may be snow at times across northern areas, especially Scotland, as well as ice at night between the wet spells.

Looking ahead to the weekend Deputy Chief Forecaster Dan Harris added: “Later in the week and over the weekend there are signs of a trend to colder conditions, especially in the north, with clearer skies for many and a return of the risk of frost, ice and wintry showers. It could remain more unsettled in the south. The details of the forecast later this week and into the weekend are extremely uncertain at this stage, so my advice is to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as confidence will increase later in the week.”

Whatever weather we experience over the next few days you can make sure that you and those around you are prepared for winter weather and can cope with its impacts. You’ll always find the most up to date information on our forecast pages, Twitter and Facebook, as well as our mobile app.

Dec 27

Cold weather prompts further health warnings from Public Health England

Public Health England (PHE) issues cold weather alerts and health warnings following the arrival of colder weather in some parts of England.

Arrival of cold weather across Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and North West of England that is due to spread across the rest of the country has prompted further warnings from Public Health England to look out for others and to take extra care during the cold, snowy conditions.

A band of rain, sleet and snow followed by a very cold and frosty period is forecast to spread southeast across the country from today until Saturday. Because every winter cold triggers thousands of illnesses and deaths across the UK, PHE is urging people to wrap up warm and take extra care when out and about.

Dr Thomas Waite of the Extreme Events team at PHE said:

Cold weather like this is part of winter – but just because we’re used to it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take steps to protect ourselves from falling ill. Every winter thousands of people die from illnesses linked to exposure to the cold when indoors and outside – that’s why it’s so important we all look out for each other.

During this Christmas period many people will be out and about more, so it’s important to make sure you’re prepared when leaving the home. Also, there will be a number of people who will have been on their own all this time. If you can, check on family, friends and neighbours who are older, have young children or who have heart and lung conditions. All these groups are particularly vulnerable to cold.

Keep a close eye on weather forecasts so you’re up-to-date with what’s happening in your area, keep homes heated to at least 18°C and remember wearing several thin layers can be more effective than fewer thicker ones.

Steve Willington, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office said:

A band of rain, sleet and snow will slowly clear east during Wednesday, with sunny but cold weather following. However some wintry showers could also move into North Sea coasts. A cold, breezy night follows with widespread frost, and a risk of ice. Thursday will then be cold and sunny, although wintry showers are likely to spread southeast from Northwest England into the Midlands. This will be followed by winds easing, and a very cold, and frosty overnight period. Milder conditions are expected to move across all parts by Saturday morning.

Nov 03

NASA Sees Damrey Strengthen into a Typhoon

Image: The AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured temperature data of Typhoon Damrey’s clouds on Nov. 2 at 1811 UTC (2:11 p.m. EDT). Coldest cloud tops (purple) were as cold as or colder than -63F (-53C). (Credits: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen)

NASA’s Aqua satellite and the NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP satellite provided imagery of Damrey as it strengthened into a typhoon in the South China Sea.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured temperature data of Typhoon Damrey’s clouds on Nov. 2 at 1811 UTC (2:11 p.m. EDT). AIRS found that coldest cloud tops were as cold as or colder than minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit or minus 53 degrees Celsius which are indicative of strong storms. NASA research has shown that storms with cloud tops that cold have the capability to generate heavy rainfall.

On Nov 3, 2017 at 1:06 a.m. EDT (0506 UTC) the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of Typhoon Damrey approaching Vietnam. The image revealed spiral bands of thunderstorms surrounding the low-level center and the hint of an eye.

Damrey is in a favorable area for strengthening with low vertical wind shear and is tracking through and area of warm sea surface temperatures.

Oct 29

Seasonal Outlook: The Weather Company Says Europe is in for Another Mild Month in November, Before Colder Emerges

December Expected to be Coldest Month of Winter, Relative to Normal

Andover, MA, 23 October 2017 — For the aggregate November-January period, The Weather Company is forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across most of the eastern half of Europe, with slightly below-normal temperatures and wetter conditions confined to parts of western Europe.

“As we head into late October and early November, there is significant uncertainty with regards to the degree of North Atlantic blocking,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “For now, we are playing it fairly conservative and are forecasting a relatively mild November with generally warm and wet conditions across northern/western Europe. Looking further ahead, many of the climate models are depicting a very mild start to winter, but we are seeing enough evidence so that we do expect December to be colder-than-normal across NW Europe. As we head deeper into the winter, we expect the early colder weather to fade a bit.”

For the November-January 2017 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

November

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, colder east

December

  • Nordic region – Colder than normal
  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

January

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder west
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder west

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site

Oct 28

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

NHC has begun issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. It’s located over the Northwest Caribbean Sea about 305 miles (490 km) south-southwest of the Isle of Youth and about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara, and the Northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.

On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through then northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. However, the system does not yet have a well-defined center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. When that occurs, it will be given the name “Philippe”.

The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals:
– Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches tonight.
– Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and the Northwest
Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.
– South Florida, including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

Oct 26

Cold blast for much of Europe in the last days of October!

Temperature anomaly map of Europe for October 30. Blue and violet hues represent colder weather than average, orange and red hues warmer. Much of central Europe, including France, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary as well as large parts of the Balkans / southeastern Europe will be up to 7-10 °C colder than average! Map indicates air temperature at 850 mbar level. Map: Tropcial Tidbits.

A major outbreak of cold arctic airmass over much of Europe north of the Alps and well into southeastern Europe as far south as Greece is coming.

Latest model guidance indicates three successive cold blasts from the north: the first, relatively weak one coming across N-CNTRL Europe tomorrow, the second, major one rapidly pushing across the northern Atlantic into NW and CNTRL Europe on Sunday and Monday and a third one following in the second half of next week. They will combine into an extended period of cool weather with temperatures well below average for this time, particularly for central, eastern and southeastern Europe for much of this weekend and most of next week. Expect locally frost and morning temperatures near zero or even below!

Also expect significant snowfall along the northern flanks of the Alps and Carpathians as persistent northerly flow results in stau effect.

Oct 19

Met Office: Storm Brian to arrive this weekend

Picture: MET OFFICE

An intense low-pressure system that is forecast to affect southern Britain on Saturday has been named as Storm Brian by Met Éireann.

The Met Office’s Irish partner took the decision earlier today to issue an Orange warning for some parts of Ireland on Saturday because of expected impacts across the Irish Republic. Under the collaboration between the Met Office and Met Éireann a storm will be named when it has the potential to cause an amber/orange or red warning.

Image: Met Éireann

Today the Met Office updated their Yellow wind warning for strong southwesterly winds on Saturday from 4am covering parts of southern and western England and South and West Wales. Currently the Met Office has no plans to issue an Amber wind warning for any part of the UK, but the situation will be under continual review.

Chief Forecaster Dan Suri said: “Storm Brian is expected to bring strong winds to southern and western areas early on Saturday morning. The first and most significant land-based impacts will be in the southwest of Ireland, hence the Amber warning from Met Éireann. At the moment, we don’t expect the same level of impacts for the UK.

“As we go through Saturday morning and early afternoon the strong southwesterly winds affecting the South West will transfer east and slowly change direction as they will become westerly towards the end of the warning period.

“Gusts exceeding 50 mph are expected widely within the warning area, with gusts of around 70 mph along exposed coastal areas. These are expected to coincide with high tides, leading to locally dangerous conditions in coastal parts.”

Before it makes landfall, the system is undergoing explosive cyclogenesis far out in the Atlantic. However, by the time it reaches Britain and Ireland this phase is expected to be complete and it will be a mature, deep low, bringing strong winds with the potential to affect travel over the weekend. The Met Office and Met Éireann will continue to review the situation ahead of the system’s arrival.

As the system is expected to bring strong gusts during Saturday, there is the obvious potential of risk to travellers. RAC spokesman Pete Williams said: “Drivers encountering high winds are advised to reduce their speed, ensure they hold the steering wheel firmly and be prepared for sudden gusts, debris and even fallen branches in the road.  Allow plenty of room between your vehicle and the next and take extra care when overtaking cyclists, motorcyclists and lorries as they are susceptible to being blown around easily by side winds.  Be extra cautious when driving on exposed roads, high ground and across bridges where again sudden gusts can blow you off course.

“When you reach your destination consider parking safely avoiding trees, overhanging telephone wires and things which could represent a falling danger.”

The strongest winds in coastal areas, gusting up to 70mph, are expected to coincide with high tides, leading to potentially dangerous conditions for local coastal communities.

Alison Baptiste, National flood duty manager for the Environment Agency, said: “Strong winds are expected across southern England on Friday night and into Saturday. Some coastal floodingis possible along the south and south-west coasts of England, especially around the times of high tide, with large waves, spray and some overtopping of coastal defences.

“We urge people to stay safe along the coast and warn against putting yourself in unnecessary danger by taking ‘storm selfies’ or driving through flood water – just 30cm is enough to move your car. Environment Agency teams are on the ground checking defences and taking precautionary measures such as closing tidal gates.

“We’re working with partners including the Met Office and local authorities to monitor the situation and are ready to respond as necessary.Where necessary we will issue flood warnings and alerts. You can check whether you’re affected at www.gov.uk/flood.”

Under the guidelines of the storm naming collaboration, an Amber wind warning triggers the naming process. Storm Brian will be the second named storm of the season, following Aileen which affected parts of the UK on 12–13 September 2017.

The system is typical for the time of year and it has developed mainly as a result of a contrast in temperatures either side of the jet stream, with cooler temperatures to the north and warm temperatures to the south. Ex-Ophelia which affected Ireland and Britain on Monday and Tuesday had a different origin as it developed from a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic. Therefore, Ophelia’s original name was continued rather than using the next predetermined name from the UK and Ireland’s storm-naming process.

Oct 15

OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND – EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT

Hurricane Ophelia is centered this morning about 475 miles (765 km) east of the Azores and about 965 miles (1550 km) south-southwest of Mizen Head, Ireland. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on Monday.

Residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, https://www.met.ie/ and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts – category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is expected today and on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday.

Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less.

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.