Sep 27

LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON

NHC has upgraded Hurricane Lee to a major hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Lee is centered over the central Atlantic Ocean about 485 miles (780 km) east-southeast of Bermuda and about 1765 miles (2845 km) west of the Azores. Lee is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. Lee should turn to the north on Thursday and
accelerate to the northeast on Friday. It is not a threat to land.

Sep 21

MARIA’S LARGE EYE (40 nautical miles in diameter) PASSING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Hurricane Maria is centered as of 11 a.m. AST about 105 miles (175 km) east-northeast of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, and about 155 miles (255 km) southeast of Grand Turk Island. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion continuing through early Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria’s eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas tonight and on Friday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeast Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions expected tonight or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Central Bahamas beginning late Friday. Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the island.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Sep 19

MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA

Hurricane Maria is centered as of 8 p.m. AST about 15 miles (25 km) east-southeast of Dominica and about 40 miles (70 km) north of Martinique. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts -a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches).

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe, Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later tonight or on Tuesday.

Sep 12

Met Office: Storm Aileen has officially been named

Storm Aileen is the first storm to be named since this seasons names were released last week and it will bring strong winds to central parts of the UK.

A deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds across much of England and Wales during Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. An Amber National Severe Weather Warningis in place, warning of gusts of 55-65 mph in particular across parts of Cheshire, Lancashire, Derbyshire, Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire.  Gusts up to around 75mph gusts could also be possible in exposed locations such as the coast and hills in these areas.

A Yellow weather warning for rain is also in place for parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England and Southern Scotland which warns of 30-40mm of rain falling within 6-9 hours which could cause some disruption.

Chief forecaster Frank Saunders said: “Storm Aileen is expected to bring strong winds of up to 75mph to a central segment of the UK and an Amber weather warning has been issued. As well as the strong winds, there will be some heavy rain pushing eastwards overnight which could see accumulations of 30-40mm. The low pressure system that is bringing these strong winds will move fairly swiftly from west to east over the UK and although there will still be some disruption through Wednesday morning, the winds will ease by the afternoon leaving a day of blustery showers.”

Richard Leonard, road safety spokesperson at Highways England, said: “We’re encouraging drivers to check the latest weather and travel conditions before setting off on journeys, with strong winds expected from Tuesday evening until Wednesday morning. In high winds, there’s a particular risk to lorries, caravans and motorbikes so we’d advise drivers of these vehicles to slow down and avoid using exposed sections of road if possible.”

There has been some speculation that this weather is being driven by the severe weather in the Caribbean and US. There is no such connection. Met Office Deputy Meteorologist Chris Tubbs said: “There are no links between the very strong winds we expect to see here in the UK and the hurricanes affecting the United States and the Caribbean at present. This system originated well north in the Atlantic Ocean, independent of the current Caribbean hurricanes”.

As Storm Aileen clears out eastwards into the North Sea, the UK will be left with cool showery conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend. The showers will still be blustery on Thursday with the winds easing as we get closer to the weekend. Within the showers there will be some periods of brightness although it will still feel cool across the whole of the UK with top temperatures only reaching 18-19°C

Sep 11

JOSE PASSING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

Hurricane Jose is centered at 11 a.m. AST about 305 miles (490 km) north-northeast of Grand Turk Island. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Swells generated by Jose will affect portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce high surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office – www.weather.gov