Jun 11

HURRICANE BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO

Hurricane Bud has continued to strengthen this morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts -a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday.

Bud is centered as of 9 a.m. MDT about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and about 475 miles (760 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch continues along the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning this afternoon. Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, across much of southwestern Mexico into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Jun 08

Infrared NASA Imagery Shows Hurricane Aletta Strengthening

NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Hurricane Aletta on June 7 at 4:41 p.m. EDT (2041 UTC) and saw coldest cloud top temperatures (purple) around the center of circulation and in thick feeder bands from the south and east of the storm’s center. Credits: NASA JPL/Ed Olsen

When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Aletta in the Eastern Pacific Ocean it had just become the first hurricane of the season. Infrared imagery showed that Aletta appeared more organized. The National Hurricane Center noted that Aletta could become a Category 4 hurricane later on June 8.

NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Hurricane Aletta on June 7 at 4:41 p.m. EDT (2041 UTC). The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument analyzed the storm in infrared light which provides temperature information. Temperature is important when trying to understand how strong storms can be. The higher the cloud tops, the colder and the stronger they are.

AIRS saw coldest cloud top temperatures around the center of circulation and in thick feeder bands from the south and east of the storm’s center. Those cloud top temperatures were as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius). Storms with cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability to produce heavy rainfall.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that Aletta became the first hurricane of the east pacific season on June 7 at 5 p.m. EDT.

NHC posted at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) on June 8, “the eye of Hurricane Aletta was located near latitude 15.8 north and longitude 110.7 west. That’s about 475 miles (765 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Aletta is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 kph) and a slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts.  Aletta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  The hurricane could intensify to category 4 status later today before significant weakening begins this weekend.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 millibars.”

Although Aletta is several hundred miles off-shore from southwestern Mexico, it’s a powerful storm and is creating dangerous coastal ocean swells. The National Hurricane Center said on June 8, “Swells generated by Aletta will begin to affect portions of the coast of west-central mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur later today and will continue through the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

May 25

.PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…WESTERN CUBA…FLORIDA…AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND

NHC has begun advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Alberto. It’s centered about 195 miles (315 km) southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

On the forecast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. EDT. –

Oct 15

OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND – EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT

Hurricane Ophelia is centered this morning about 475 miles (765 km) east of the Azores and about 965 miles (1550 km) south-southwest of Mizen Head, Ireland. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on Monday.

Residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, https://www.met.ie/ and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts – category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is expected today and on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday.

Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less.

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Oct 14

OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE AZORES -THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON

Hurricane Ophelia is centered as of 11 a.m. AST about 220 miles (355 km) south of the Azores. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern Azores by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front. Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through Saturday night.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ophelia is a quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner. Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Monday as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.

Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, https://www.met.ie/ and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Oct 07

HURRICANE NATE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

Hurricane Nate is centered as of 4 a.m. about 345 miles (550 km) south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general fast motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast on Sunday morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico today and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight.

Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa / Walton County Line , Florida, including the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Maurepas, west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana and east of the Alabama / Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin earlier. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday.

The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to 6 ft; Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border…5 to 9 ft. Alabama / Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line…4 to 6 ft; Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida…2 to 4 ft; Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Another reconnaissance plane will investigate Nate soon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Cabo San Antonio in the western tip of Cuba reported gusts to 53 mph (85 km/h) a few hours ago.

Sep 27

LEE BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON

NHC has upgraded Hurricane Lee to a major hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Lee is centered over the central Atlantic Ocean about 485 miles (780 km) east-southeast of Bermuda and about 1765 miles (2845 km) west of the Azores. Lee is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. Lee should turn to the north on Thursday and
accelerate to the northeast on Friday. It is not a threat to land.

Sep 21

MARIA’S LARGE EYE (40 nautical miles in diameter) PASSING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Hurricane Maria is centered as of 11 a.m. AST about 105 miles (175 km) east-northeast of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, and about 155 miles (255 km) southeast of Grand Turk Island. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion continuing through early Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria’s eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas tonight and on Friday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeast Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions expected tonight or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Central Bahamas beginning late Friday. Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the island.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Sep 19

MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA

Hurricane Maria is centered as of 8 p.m. AST about 15 miles (25 km) east-southeast of Dominica and about 40 miles (70 km) north of Martinique. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts -a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches).

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe, Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later tonight or on Tuesday.

Sep 11

JOSE PASSING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

Hurricane Jose is centered at 11 a.m. AST about 305 miles (490 km) north-northeast of Grand Turk Island. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Swells generated by Jose will affect portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce high surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office – www.weather.gov