May 25

.PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…WESTERN CUBA…FLORIDA…AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND

NHC has begun advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Alberto. It’s centered about 195 miles (315 km) southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

On the forecast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. EDT. –

Oct 28

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

NHC has begun issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. It’s located over the Northwest Caribbean Sea about 305 miles (490 km) south-southwest of the Isle of Youth and about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara, and the Northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.

On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through then northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. However, the system does not yet have a well-defined center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. When that occurs, it will be given the name “Philippe”.

The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals:
– Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches tonight.
– Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and the Northwest
Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.
– South Florida, including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

Oct 07

HURRICANE NATE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

Hurricane Nate is centered as of 4 a.m. about 345 miles (550 km) south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general fast motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast on Sunday morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico today and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight.

Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa / Walton County Line , Florida, including the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Maurepas, west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana and east of the Alabama / Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin earlier. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday.

The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River…4 to 6 ft; Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border…5 to 9 ft. Alabama / Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line…4 to 6 ft; Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida…2 to 4 ft; Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida…1 to 3 ft

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Another reconnaissance plane will investigate Nate soon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Cabo San Antonio in the western tip of Cuba reported gusts to 53 mph (85 km/h) a few hours ago.

Aug 15

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season still expected to be strongest since 2012

PHOTO-Hurricane Earl-81116-NOAA-1120x534-landscape

Forecasters now expect 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms

In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012.

Forecasters now expect a 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms, of which 5–8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2–4 major hurricanes. Theinitial outlook called for 10–16 named storms, 4–8 hurricanes, and 1–4 major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.”

“Given these competing conditions, La Niña, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season,” added Bell. NOAA announced that La Niña is slightly favored to develop during the hurricane season.

To date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).

As we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most frequent and often at their strongest, NOAA urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts. Learn how NOAA forecasts hurricanes.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Twitter,Facebook, Instagram and our other social media channels.

Jul 24

EASTERN & CENTRAL PACIFIC *Full Update* Watching 3 Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Darby, Frank and Georgette

13754613_1130009610379164_7162817245003655252_n

Tropical Storm Darby has generated Tropical Storm Warnings in Hawaii today, while Tropical Storm Frank is generating ocean swells along the coast of Baja California. Meanwhile Hurricane Georgette is over open waters.

NOAA’s GOES-West satellite captured infrared imagery of all three storms on Sunday, July 24, 2016 at 1200 UTC (8 a.m. EDT). Those images were put together at NASA/NOAA GOES Project office at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greebelt, Maryland. NOAA manages the GOES satellites and NASA/NOAA GOES Project uses the data to create images and animations.

Darby Triggers Hawaii Warnings
Today, July 24, 2016, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all islands in the state of Hawaii, except the Big Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument…from Nihoa Island to French Frigate Shoals.

At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 157.3 West. Darby is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, with slow weakening Monday night.

What Hawaii Can Expect from Darby
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center said today that tropical Storm force winds are expected over parts of Maui County and Oahu through tonight, and over Kauai late tonight and Monday. Swells generated by Darby are impacting the Hawaiian Islands, and will continue through tonight before diminishing on Monday. Storm total rainfall of 6 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and landslides.

Tropical Storm Frank Holding Steady, But Causing Swells in Baja California
At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on Sunday, July 24, 2016, the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 112.4 West. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 kph). A generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast to begin late Monday.

Swells associated with Frank are affecting the coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of Sinaloa. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Hurricane Georgette Strengthening
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Georgette was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 124.6 West. That’s about 1,100 miles (1,770km) west-southwest of the southern tip of baja California, Mexico.

Georgette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, with slow weakening forecast to begin on Monday.

Jul 22

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii

13729040_1114229885309157_8452749455064749887_n

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii. A Tropical Storm Watch continues for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected over the Big Island and are possible over portions of Maui county on Saturday. Tropical Storm Darby is centered about 460 miles (740 km) east of Hilo. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h). Little change in strength through Saturday evening is expected.

13726578_1114229875309158_7985298961053495441_n 13707520_1114229865309159_5110304386851191790_n

Swells generated by Darby are expected to impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, possibly becoming damaging along some coastlines Friday and Saturday. Heavy rains are expected to reach the Big Island and portions of Maui county late Friday, potentially impacting the remainder of the state Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods as well as rock and mud slides.

Get the latest on this tropical storm by visiting the website of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Darby